Anatol Lieven
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Comment | World reaction | US drawn in
Many factors are involved in the present conflict but the central one is straightforward: the majority of the Ossetes living south of the main Caucasus range in Georgia wish to unite with the Ossetes living to the north, in an autonomous republic of the Russian Federation; and the Georgians, regarding South Ossetia as both a legal and an historic part of their national territory, refuse to accept this.
Twice in the past century, when the empire to the north weakened and Georgia declared its independence, the southern Ossetes revolted against Georgian rule. It happened in 1918-20, between the collapse of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union’s conquest of Georgia in 1921; and it happened again in our own time with the fall of the Soviet Union.
In 1918-20, between 5,000 and 15,000 people died, depending on whose figures you believe. For the conflicts since 1990, the figure is about 4,000 and rising.
As the Soviet Union began to crumble in 1989, and Georgian nationalist moves for independence gathered pace, so too did Ossete nationalism and demands for separation from Georgia.
The Ossete national movement was encouraged by the Soviet Government in an effort to exert pressure against Georgian independence.
In November 1989 the Soviet assembly of the South Ossetian autonomous region passed a motion calling for union with North Ossetia. Thousands of Georgian nationalists marched on Tskhinvali, the South Ossetian capital, in protest but were blocked by Soviet forces.
A year later, after the election in Georgia of a pro-independence government led by the extreme nationalist Zviad Gamsakhurdia, the same assembly declared South Ossetia a Soviet republic separate from Georgia. The Gamsakhurdia Government then sent thousands of Georgian armed police and nationalist militia into the region. These were fought to a standstill by local Ossete militia backed by Soviet Interior Ministry troops.
I was in Georgia at the time, reporting for The Times, and could hardly have imagined that this obscure conflict would one day create a major international crisis. Tskhinvali was a typical grey Soviet Caucasian Nowheresville, of bleak, crumbling concrete offices, potholed roads and faceless compounds. The only colour I remember was on the uniforms of the Georgian fighters: one was wearing a blue and white bobble hat, another had made for himself the uniform of an officer in the Georgian forces of 1918-21.
The Russian conscripts by contrast were not colourful at all: drab, demoralised and loathing the whole situation. They were, however, much better armed than the Georgians – and still are today.
The conflict rumbled on for several years, with peaks of fighting interspersed with truces. When in 1991 the Soviet Union collapsed and Georgian independence (within the borders of the Georgian Soviet Republic, and therefore including South Ossetia and Abkhazia) was recognised by the international community, South Ossetia rejected this and continued to assert its independence. Georgia declared the South Ossete autonomous republic abolished.
Russia has not recognised this, but Russian forces have remained as the de facto defenders of the South Ossetian separatist region.
In 1996 the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) brokered an agreement whereby Russian and Georgian peacekeepers would patrol different sectors of the region.
The OSCE remained until the Georgian Government of Eduard Shevardnadze, the former Communist leader, was overthrown in the Rose Revolution and replaced by the radical nationalist administration of Mikhail Saakashvili.
Russia’s policy is driven by a mixture of emotion and calculation. The Russian security establishment likes the Ossetes, who have been Russian allies for more than 250 years. They loathe the Georgians for their antiRussian nationalism and alliance with the US. For a long time they hoped to use South Ossetia initially to keep Georgia within the Soviet Union and later in a Russian sphere of influence.
That Russian ambition has been abandoned largely in the face of the Georgians’ determination to escape from this influence.
What remains is an absolute determination not to be defeated by Georgia and not to suffer the humiliation of having to abandon Russia’s South Ossete client state, with everything that this would mean for Russian prestige in other areas. Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin made it clear again and again that if Georgia attacked South Ossetia, Russia would fight. Georgian advocates in the West claimed that Moscow was only bluffing. It wasn’t.
Anatol Lieven is a professor at King’s College London and a senior Fellow of the New America Foundation in Washington DC. In 1990-96 he was a correspondent for The Times in the former Soviet Union, including Georgia
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Guys, what are we talking about? Everybody is seems to be a politican. Don't be an idiot, think not about Governments but about people. Is there any chance for people who shoot each other two months ago live happily ever after?
The true is no. It does not matter what wants Washington or Moscow.
Vlad, Vladimir,
It's pretty funny that one friend of mine told me a compere with situation in Latvia. If riot would happened in one of Latvia city where lives many Russians and Latvian army would go there to suppress it would Russia start war with Latvia too?
P.S.
Maybe I didn't got the idea?
Janis, Riga, Latvia
Is Russia going also to recognise the independence of North Ossetia which is in its territory?
Jonas, Vilnius,
The case is one of the will of the majority of Ossetes being respected, this together with the plainly historic assertion of that will by that majority . Right is plainly on the side of the south Ossetians. Any resolution will have to be made in the context of these realities.
Michael, Sandy's Parish, Bermuda
Drew
International Law ? You have to be kidding ! West coast liberal thinking that the International courts or the UN will help out .
Get real !
Barry
Barry DeWalt, Arlington Texas, USA
It's just so confusing to me to see how easily we forget how wars occur. Strategic Alliances, economic stability, freedom, independence, and more at the cost of thousands of lives destroyed, chaos, panic, and terror, not to mention all the death that it involves. Is it really worth it?
David, Pta Arenas, Chile
Karen - You think freedom and liberty are reserved for you and easily denied all others who should be content with totalitarianism? This conflict has been brewing for decades and the root of it is the desire for liberty -not the US. Before condemning others to that life, live it yourself first.
Kate, Kansas City, MO, USA
I am embarrassed by my government. The CIA and big business; ie OIL have reaked havoc across the world in the guise of freedom. Please do not judge all americans because of the idiots and greedy who have control. We are truly good people, but easily duped by liers and misiformation peddlers.
Karen, Cleveland, US
Dear Michael, Tbilisi, Georgia
And you wanna say that it's a reason to commit a genocide against them?
Funny guy! And I think that crazy Georgian President is hiding behind this message!
We love Georgians and Ossetians.
More than 1 million Georgians live in Russia and they HATE Saakashvili
Rowan, Moscow, Russia
Thank you for a good insight into the history of the subject but I believe this isn't the whole story. Russia cares about their geopolotical interests much more than about Ossetians. It's been a huge mistake of UNO to give them a status of peackeepers. Georgia's wish to join NATO is why they care.
Svitlana, london,
A tiny small country like Georgia chosen as an arena for fight of two goliats: US and Russia. Who can be a winner?
Mary, New-york, US
South Ossetia never been existed before Stalin. Show me one more country/nation living on both sides of huge ridge like Caucasus. Ossetians was started populating the southern side only in 17th-18th centuries. That is why Georgia doesn't agree with foundation of independent country on its territory
Michael, Tbilisi, Georgia
To T.Cox, Liverpool, England
No, it was not. Stalin was born in Gori, it's a town in a step to the south of South Ossetian border. You still can see a monument of Stalin right in the centre of Gori.
But yes, the western people do know a lot about the Caucases and the Caucasians.
Jurate, Riga,
Very well written. In terms of cold hard tactics and logic, this is a masterstroke for Russia. Pinned down by conflicts in Iraq, worried about Iran, the US is not about to intervene militarily, NATO countries are barely able to field the required troops in Afghanistan.
David, Toronto, Canada
I didn't expect to read a trurth report in Western press. At the same time I can say that if Russia will be punished (in any way) by EU and USA for right action in Georgia, the world will loose one of good partners. Nowdays it's not possible to stay along, so Russia can sign pacts with China or Iran
Andy, Moscow, Russia
Maybe certain elements of the Russian leadership yearn for the old days. Was not Tiblisi Georgia , the birthplace of Uncle Joe?
T. Cox, Liverpool, England
I say nuke em all!!
Georgia,Russia,Israel,Palistine,iran,iraq
That will sort out the worlds conflicts.No more nations to create wars.In fact if we start world war 3 then no more global warming!!! It's only the human infestation that is wrecking this planet.
Mike, Rushden, UK
"I can't see how you people can blame USA of hypocrisy (not without truth) and can't see russian one..." - Maciej, Gliwice, Poland
Maciej, some still forlornly hope that world opinion can influence the US for the better. Nobody ever hoped that way about Russia.
Alan, Sydney, Australia
Has it ever occured that a region can secede without a war? Doesn't seem to be possible, and even then it rarely works.
What is the international law covering secession??
I would think a vote of 2/3 should do it.
Drew, Oakland, CA, USA
As much as I see faults with the Georgian leaders for instigating this mess I hold the Super Power up north also partially responsible. As long as the Russians are willing to be led by a former KGB agent who still has visions of greatness I see no peace with their neighbors. No free press no criticism
Tariku, Alexandria, VA
And of course there's absolutely no doubt that if Ossetia lied far from gaspipies and other fuel transit lines russian reaction would be absloutely the same and Russians have no ulterior motive... I can't see how you people can blame USA of hypocrisy (not without truth) and can't see russian one...
Maciej, Gliwice, Poland
Thank you for truthful article!
Denis, Voronezh, Russia
Kamil... and Georgia was not Soviet territory at all until the Soviets snatched it up...
Sergey, If Russia now wants to invade Georgia, it would not be much of an issue, provided they clear the mountains first. It is a manpower issue. Russia can put more guns on the ground.
Rodrigo, The Maldives,
What the Georgian refuse to accept? You have to recall first Georgian president Gamsakhurdia who abolished Ossete autonomy when there was no tension. He used to say they may be whoever but they live in Georgian state. It was in 1990. Since then mutual mistrust has been strong.
Farrukh, Moscow, Russia
Seems you have won more Russian friends, sir. They must really be a depressing lot - to think that killing is OK so that Nowheresville be kept in the 'Russian sphere of influence' at all costs! Isn't gun-boat diplomacy a thing of the past? Maybe Messrs. Ras Putin and Medvedev should be told.
pete laubscher, League City, TX, USA
The main problem is that Ossetia was devided by Stalin on two peaces in Soviet time. He gave that territory to his native country - Georgia. It's not Georgian territory at all !!!! All the boarders of that time between different part of USSR was made in Stalins cabinet without asking the people!
Kamil, Chelaybisnk, Russia
thank you very much prof.
many of us in Africa don't understand the myriad of issues that under girds this conflict. we watch quite a bit of CNN and being a US media it is very easy to have a soft spot for georgia and lebelling russia an aggressor. in any case our hearts goes to innocent victims
robert omondi, nairobi, kenya
"They were, however, much better armed than the Georgians – and still are today." - don't believe this has any bearing with reality, Georgian troops are very well trained and equipped these days.
Sergey, Odessa, Ukraine
Tahnk you professor Lieven and The Times for publishing an honest analysis of this situation. After Afghanistan, Iraq, Zimbabwe, Mbeke character assasination etc, it is nice to find some unbiased reporting on a geopolitical issue.
zoomy, Hitchin, UK
Really good. Respect you for this, The Times and Prof. Lieven. People shoud understand that Russia does NOT want to attack anyone for new provinces (ENOUGH by now) or politic influence. The aim is to save Ossetian's lives from genocide of SAAKASHHVILI REGIME!!!
Alexei, Zheleznodorozhny, Russia
Mr Lieven - great thanks to you for this informative and honest material. It is a great (and rare) fact in today press of seeing such independent point of view.
Hope this material won't be the only one in UK and/or US press.
It's great that there're people who don't believe russians are demons.
Evgeniy, Saint Petersburg, Russia
Mr Lieven - factual and informative thank you.
How ironic that these States of the old USSR are fighting for their independence - meanwhile a whole host of Western European countries are by the Politicians sleigh of hand, having their independence surrendered to the EU without a murmur.
Richard Garland, Greater Manchester,
The only part of the puzzle that appears missing to me is this: on which grounds tdoes Georgia believe that South Ossetia should remain part of Georgia if the South Ossetians feel so strongly about not being part of Geogia?
Charl, Cape Town, South Africa
That "radical nationalist" has reformed Georgia into a safe and prosperous neighbor to Russia's benefit. What this article failed to mention is the tactical scrutiny which Moscow has destabilized Georgia by encouraging these Ossetes (what about Ossete-Georgian refuges?) to lose their lives in battle
Terry, San Francisco,
I have 25% Georgian blood and 75% Russian. I called relatives in Tbilisi and asked what they think. They told: Saakashvilli has done biggest mistake. He started war with South Ossetia and now does not know what to do. Result: 2000 dead civilians in Chinvali and 30 000 refugees on Russian territory
Denis, Helsinki, Finland
Very good analysis. Only facts and no propaganda. Thank you!
Alex, Utrecht,
Finally something worth reading!
Tatiana, Berlin, Germany
Thank you for your wel and objectively written piece, Mr. Lieven. A nice change from all the junk coming from the states and partly the UK.
Elena, Moscow, Russia