As President Saakashvili looked up in terror at the Russian helicopter roaring
over the besieged town of Gori, with his troops in retreat and Western
allies offering no more than words against Moscow, the catastrophic
consequences of his decision to take military action in South Ossetia last
week could not have been clearer.
In his attempts to clamp down on pro-Russian South Ossetian separatists, Mr
Saakashvili appears to have made one fundamental, disastrous miscalculation:
that the Bush Administration and the West viewed their relationship with
Georgia as more important than that with Russia.
Last night President Bush issued a strong condemnation of Russia’s actions,
but did not refer to any action that the United States might take in
Georgia’s defence. Mr Bush said there was evidence that Russia was trying to
overthrow a democratically elected government and planning to attack the
civilian airport in Tbilisi. “Such an action is unacceptable in the
21st century,” he added.
A few hours before Mr Bush’s strong but not very supportive words, a
flak-jacketed Mr Saakashvili had visited Gori, about 40 miles north of the
Georgian capital Tbilisi. As a helicopter appeared, his bodyguards pushed
him to the ground, and then into a black armoured vehicle, shouting “Go, go,
go!”. His US-trained army was soon fleeing the town in disarray.
By last night Alexander Lomaia, the secretary of the Georgian Security
Council, declared that Russian forces had occupied Gori. “This is a total
onslaught,” he said.
Mr Saakashvili, the flamboyant, multilingual, Harvard-educated law graduate
who swept to power in the 2003 bloodless Rose Revolution, has particularly
close ties to the neoconservative, pro-democracy wing of the US Government.
Mr Bush had repeatedly championed Georgia as a bastion of democracy.
Only four months ago Mr Saakashvili, 40, hailed a breakthrough in his campaign
to turn his poverty-stricken country into a free-market member of the West
after Nato leaders declared that Georgia would one day join the military
alliance. He had sent 2,000 troops to Iraq and harboured serious hopes of
joining the European Union.
He was the embodiment, in Western eyes, of how the newly emerging Eastern
Europe should look: young, free-market, dynamic and a buttress against the
expansionist aims of an increasingly powerful Russia.
Now he risks losing not only those hopes but also South Ossetia and his grip
on power itself, with Moscow’s intention of seeing him overthrown becoming
clearer by the day. Zalmay Khalilzad, the US Ambassador to the United
Nations, accused the Kremlin of seeking Mr Saakashvili’s downfall. He said
that Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, had told Condoleezza Rice,
the US Secretary of State, that “the democratically elected President of
Georgia must go”.
Analysts believe that Russia has been waiting for an excuse to invade Georgia
and destroy Mr Saakashvili, and the Georgian President’s decision last week
to clamp down on separatists in South Ossetia appears to have been the
disastrous misjudgment that gave Russia an opening. The belief in Washington
is that Vladimir Putin, the Russian Prime Minister, thought that the West
would do little to help Georgia because of Russia’s strategic might and
because much of Europe depended heavily on its gas supplies.
The most support that Georgia received from Western allies yesterday was a
ceasefire call from the G7 group of nations and an offer to broker a
ceasefire from the European Union, both brushed aside by Moscow.
Gordon Brown said that Russia was damaging its international reputation, while
David Cameron, the Conservative leader, labelled Russia a “dangerous and
massive bully” and called for Georgia to be given accelerated Nato
membership. Mr Brown said: “There is no justification for continued Russian
military action in Georgia, which threatens the stability of the entire
region and risks a humanitarian catastrophe.”
Bruce Jackson, an influential advocate of democracy in Eastern European, said
that the Russian invasion smacked of “rank premeditation”, adding: “The
Georgians were naive to think that the international system could protect
them. There will be a lot of blame to go around for this. We have failed a
young democracy.”
Defeat in South Ossetia is a bitter blow to Mr Saakashvili, who came to power
championing a united Georgia. His political currency has been debased at
home because his Western allies — particularly the US — appear to be doing
little to halt the deaths of thousands of Georgian civilians. The wisdom of
his gamble will inevitably be questioned by his own voters, as will his
staunchly pro-Western policies.
Even before the war, Mr Saakashvili was facing growing domestic unrest amid
accusations that he was trying to consolidate power. Tens of thousands of
people attended a protest rally in May, challenging the results of a snap
presidential election in January.
Roman Kuzniar, Professor of Political Science at Warsaw University, said: “The
Georgians made a big mistake. Now Georgia will have to take the toll, most
probably disproportionately severe.”
Bruce George, a Labour MP and close follower of Georgian-Russian relations,
said: “I believe the Georgians were suckered into this and paid a very heavy
price. If you embark on a war, as the Georgians did, you have to work out
what the consequences will be. It was inevitable that the Russians would
react very heavily.”
Under Mr Saakashvili, Georgia has achieved impressive economic growth and
attracted foreign capital. The war is likely to damage the Georgian economy
significantly and scare off many foreign investors. If Georgia had been a
Nato member, it could have invoked the alliance’s Article V mutual defence
clause, requiring nations to come to the assistance of an ally under attack.
The Russian aggression, therefore, has greatly complicated Georgian hopes of
Nato membership. David Lubin, an economist at Citigroup, said: “This makes
Nato expansion much less likely. The last thing the United States needs now
is another front. That’s exactly what Russia is taking advantage of.”
Franco Frattini, the Italian Foreign Minister, said: “This war has pushed
Georgia farther away not just from Europe, but also complicates the Nato
council in December.”
The case for and against Nato membership
For Nato is a political as well as a security organisation and the
objective of its expansionist policy is to seek to embrace into the same
network as many countries in the wider European family as possible. With the
entry of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia into the alliance, the pro-Western
state of Georgia felt that it had every right to join the queue of
applicants. The alliance has agreed to admit it in principle because
membership helps to spread democracy and stability. Extending membership
would protect a strategic Western ally from the threat of Russian attack
Against Nato’s expansion programme has caused deep anxiety in Russia.
The proposed installation of elements of America’s missile defence system in
Poland and the Czech Republic is viewed with suspicion, and inviting Georgia
to join the alliance is seen, from Moscow’s viewpoint, as another stab in
the back. The Caucasus is Russia’s unstable backyard. Nato has no interest
in provoking Russia for the sake of adding another country to the long list
of members. Relations with Moscow would be seriously damaged. The West could
be drawn into a new Cold War or, worse, open conflict with the Kremlin
By the way Josef Stalin was georgian... Beria too...
Sergey, Wellington,
What happens is fairly normal... has obvious chineese back-up
and is a direct retaliation on the weak Global Governence mechanisums inheritated from post- WWII in the context of total Anglo-American Abuse on International Law and undercover US operations in Central Asia Enjoy your errors now!!!
hunter_willard, BCN, Spain, Kirgizistan
"Dave in Plymouth", a US-sponsored missile shield would protect the peace of Europe and is not designed to save the USA; Pakistan and Iran BOTH have proven missile capability to reach (at least) southern and eastern Europe, both have or want nukes, and Pakistan's stability is under constant threat.
Geoff Tudor, Sequim, WA, USA
Jim in Canada-
Yes, I am old enough to remember the old Soviets. The only people that thought the Soviets were blond and blued eyed giants were people that thought Drago in Rocky was a documentry. I know what the enemy looks like.
Casey L. Brown-Myers, Lubbock, USA
"Bruce Jackson, an influential advocate of democracy in Eastern European"?
Bruce Jackson is also ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-US military, ex-Vice President of Lockheed Martin (the US arms manufacturers), and founder member of Project for the New American Century.
look at wikipedia
Alex, London, UK
Oh well that was obviosly our fault. we provoked Georgia so it had to shell Osetia and kill 2000 innocent civilians in an unprovoked attack but that's fine and does not count, cause Georgia is such a democratic country and a western ally.
Vladimir, Moscow,
San Francisco you are pro Russian.Regarding Krajina it was never Serbian.It was set up long time ago by Croatian warriors to block the Turks entering further west.I speak from the knowledge of history,and not from an emotional point of view.As for Georgia Russians still play domino grab more and mo
Clapci Bruno, Vancouver,
comments here reflect genuine concerns about increasing polarisation leading to greater crises. Very many parallel comparisons with Ukraine, Orange revolution, Nato, gas , tensions etc,but much closer to Europe of course. We must amswer this question what is necessary for Uraine ...just in case...
J Jarvis, Alton,
A- Russians place army on border
B- Russians allow/encourage/do not stop Ossetians shelling Georgians
C- Georgians foolishly retaliate in the worst way
D- Russians squash Georgia
Simple really if you think about it. Violent and repulsive part of the world. Package holiday anyone?
mark, maidstone, uk
You reap what you sow unfortunately and the Georgian Government and it people are now reaping the result of their folly into South Ossetia. The Russian bear was always going to react in that manner it has to seize back a vital link in the Black Sea and control to the stratigic gas and oil areas.
Adrian, Sydnet, Australia
That's a lesson for all the nations unfortunately having the common border with Russia... It is unacceptable to provoke the giant, but on the other hand it is difficult to stay independent. And no hopes for the West, as usual. Because the West does not need us. But only the Russian gas...Pity.
Dennis, Chernihiv, Ukraine
It´s stupid to say Georgia provoked this, don´t you know Russia has bee provoking Georgia for years? Georgian imports are banned from Russia and Russian press via Russian gov. been stoking anti Georgian feeling for years. Georgia has/had a v. strong economy and is more democraticthan most in region.
matty, frankfurt, germany
The Georgian government should be blamed for a complete miscalculation of the Russian response. Calls from the west to respect territorial integrity are laughable, we don't respect such integrity when its in our interests to strike or invade, so we can't take a holier than thou stance. Go Russia!
Chris, Adelaide, Australia
No way should these countries be in NATO. This is how the first world war started and a war with Russia now would result in a much bigger death toll. Georgia picked the fight and lost, the west will have to get its oil from Iraq and soon to be "liberated" Iran.
Ian, Tokyo, Japan
Mass medias tell!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
At first is it three days written us that in Gori Russian troops???????????????
And here show the Georgian president being in Gori and weltering on earth!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Andrey , S.Peterburg, Russia
This American puppet is so pathetic! Think first, if you have something useful to think with, and do next.. But it seems that it is not a nature of such "leaders".. Too bad..
Elena, Ulyanovsk, Russia
There are two clear answers here: (1) offer immediate security guarantees to Georgia and Ukraine and (2) start a fast track process for their entry into NATO. Longer term: Europe needs more military might, so Russia can't threaten it's gas supplies every time they decide to stomp on small states.
TMD, Columbus, OH, USA
casey in lubbock,usa
are you old enough to remember that ,not long ago in America russians were believed to be all 6 foot tall,blond , blue eyed,over 200lbs .blood thirsty warriors.those days as well as these days this kind of mentality is simply the result of lies(propaganda)
jim s, sask., can.
Saakashivili is pro-west marionette... He start this war.
They killed about 1500 people for one night.
Unfortunately Russia has already lost one war - in mass media.
Val, Boston,
I like the picture of Saakashvili cowering on the ground .it must make the Ruskies chuckle.The words democracy and coalition of the willing ,have no more value here,
If the US or Britain want that oil .they will have to pay for it....or fight for it ....on their own.
George Robson, Auckland, New Zealand
Mr. Bush has such a short memory when he talked about "invasion of a sovereign country in the 21st century" for he has forgotten Iraq and Afghanistan (Grenada 1983 & Panama 1989) and when he talked about "excessive and disproportionate force" he forgot about the Israeli bombing of Beirut in 2006.
george, london, uk
Stalin was as georgian as Saakashvily?, if I'm not mistaken. Saakashvily was the 1st who started the conflict, and osetians are suffering from his agression. Meanwhile The USA helps Mishiko, returning the whole world into the cold war. I don't think that Europians need the conflict, the USA needs it
Andrew, Harbin,
The Nu-Putin Soviets are on the march and will stop in Georgia. They are no different than the old soviet murderers in the not too distant past. Judging by their tactics, they would be no match for American soldiers.
Casey L. Brown-Myers, Lubbock, USA
Russia is still humiliated over the vast wealth that was stolen and laundered througout the last decades. Thank Saakashvili for all the Georgian deaths + property damage; they still will not outnumber Ossetian deaths during this conflict.
Daniel, Brooklyn, U.S.
In this case Georgian's have provoked Russia by bombing Russian "peacekeepers" and citizens to overtake South Ostessia. The West must have given OK to Georgians hoping for scenario of Krajina region in Croata ~ 250,000 Serbs have been ethnically cleansed there. However, this is Russia backyard.
Nick, San Francisco,
America has been baiting Russia for months with it's "military advisers" and arms shipments to Georgia and plans for a missile system in Eastern Europe supposedly to defend America from weapons that no Middle Eastern country is even near to having,no doubt from the same factory that made Iraq's WMDs
Dave, Plymouth,
While there are U.S. Military Advisors and training staff in Tblisi, there is every justification for the US Tanks in europe to roll into the Georgian Capital to exercise, as Putin said "our constitutional responsibility to protect our citizens wherever they may be". Such rhetoric is twisty at best
Steve, Minneapolis, Minnesota
The grim jackboot of Orwellian Stalinist overlordism has returned! ----At least we see the true nature of the beast --let nobody now be fooled.
All in the west + around the world now see Russia as a highly dangerous, violent & subversive nation. The deathly shadow of Josef Stalin has returned.
John, Tbilisi, Georgia
today georgia..tomorrow the world...
its poland 1939 all over again....
austin kearney, epsom, uk
Great quote and worth repeating:
"If you embark on a war, as the Georgians did, you have to work out what the consequences will be. It was inevitable that the Russians would react very heavily. At this stage it seems uncertain that they will stop"
colleen, new york, usa