Tim Reid in Washington
Over 900 restaurants nationwide. Find your nearest now

The next two decades will see a world living with the daily threat of nuclear war, environmental catastrophe and the decline of America as the dominant global power, according to a frighteningly bleak assessment by the US intelligence community.
“The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons,” said the report by the National Intelligence Council, a body of analysts from across the US intelligence community.
The analysts said that the report had been prepared in time for Barack Obama’s entry into the Oval office on January 20, where he will be faced with some of the greatest challenges of any newly elected US president.
“The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes,” the 121-page assessment said.
The analysts draw attention to an already escalating nuclear arms race in the Middle East and anticipate that a growing number of rogue states will be prepared to share their destructive technology with terror groups. “Over the next 15-20 years reactions to the decisions Iran makes about its nuclear programme could cause a number of regional states to intensify these efforts and consider actively pursuing nuclear weapons,” the report Global Trends 2025 said. “This will add a new and more dangerous dimension to what is likely to be increasing competition for influence within the region,” it said.
The spread of nuclear capabilities will raise questions about the ability of weak states to safeguard them, it added. “If the number of nuclear-capable states increases, so will the number of countries potentially willing to provide nuclear assistance to other countries or to terrorists.”
The report said that global warming will aggravate the scarcity of water, food and energy resources. Citing a British study, it said that climate change could force up to 200 million people to migrate to more temperate zones. “Widening gaps in birth rates and wealth-to-poverty ratios, and the impact of climate change, could further exacerbate tensions,” it said.
“The international system will be almost unrecognisable by 2025, owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalising economy, a transfer of wealth from West to East, and the growing influence of nonstate actors. Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, the United States’ relative strength – even in the military realm – will decline and US leverage will become more strained.”
Global power will be multipolar with the rise of India and China, and the Korean peninsula will be unified in some form. Turning to the current financial situation, the analysts say that the financial crisis on Wall Street is the beginning of a global economic rebalancing.
The US dollar’s role as the major world currency will weaken to the point where it becomes a “first among equals”.
“Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation, but we cannot rule out a 19th-century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries.” The report, based on a global survey of experts and trends, was more pessimistic about America’s global status than previous outlooks prepared every four years. It said that outcomes will depend in part on the actions of political leaders. “The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks,” it said.
The analysts also give warning that the kind of organised crime plaguing Russia could eventually take over the government of an Eastern or Central European country, and that countries in Africa and South Asia may find themselves ungoverned, as states wither away under pressure from security threats and diminishing resources..
The US intelligence community expects that terrorism would survive until 2025, but in slightly different form, suggesting that alQaeda’s “terrorist wave” might be breaking up. “AlQaeda’s inability to attract broad-based support might cause it to decay sooner than people think,” it said.
On a positive note it added that an alternative to oil might be in place by 2025.
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
05/2005
£13,500
08/2008
£109,950
2005 / 55
£59,500
Great car insurance deals online
Circa £60,000
The Army Benevolent Fund
London
C£100K+
Chronophage
Isle of Man
12-15 days a year, c £12K
Springboard
London
£Competitive
American Airlines
Heathrow, London
Great Investment, River Views
Times Online Property Search will help you Find It
like nothing on Earth!
.
Must end 28 Feb 2009!
Save up to 25%
Amazing Far East Offers
Visit Malaysia from £755pp
Great travel insurance deals online
.
Whod'a thought it? We stave off countless attacks from hostile nations only to lose it all from within. The LIBERALS have been systematically destroying the soul of this country for 40 years. Little by little they attack our customs, traditions and institutions. The end of the US is near.
Don, Corning, USA
Stop looking into the pass gave the future a chance we have been through the bad times before and we will again.
Get rid of the hate in the world and start loveing other people
and who knows, we might have a loveing home to live in.
Gave peace a chance!!!!!
Copey, swindon, england
Its the right time for the US to think realistic,,,instead of expectations of the unrealistics(growth),,,,personally what I feel is ,,,,Globalisation was a half mistake,,,,,also self concentration is important I believe.
shelly, Dubai, UAE
Reading these comments I realise many of you Americans are in denial. I mean how long did you think this hegemony would last, forever? Great Powers are always overtaken by new ones, it happened to us, it is happening to you. One thing for sure is the 21st century won't be American, it will be Asian.
Mike, Paris, France
we are def. in a transition period but i would not pay too much attention to these articles with respect to the writer. If you sit and actually start worrying about the worlds problems you will depress yourself, just live with it and learn to make the most out of life, good luck to you all!!!
C Kroustis, London, UK
The current crisis affects the report, but it is not unsubstantiated. World capitalism seems to have run out of solutions. After Keynesianism failed, they reverted to naked liberalism once again. With the failure of the later, what else do they have to offer besides devouring each other?
Ron, Bat Yam, Israel
Looks like the employees of the US intelligence community have secured themselves employment for a few years yet!
Mike, Leeds`, United Kingdom
Are these the same intelligence people who said Saddam Hussain had WMD's which could reach the UK in 45 minutes?
Mohammed, London, UK
Reading some of these comments, "no evidence of transfer of power to the east" had better wonder why the Japanese have 5.8 Trillion that is with a T dollar foreign investment. That is why the Yen is top dog right now.
mike mccloy, Granada, Spain
Mankind deserves to become extinct.It is corrupt,selfish, and has no regard for our planet in any form! ...and don't say it does care!Who's giving up their car then to'save the planet?' I thought so! Again xmas approaches and I see no mention of Christ but plenty of 'Ads to buy,buy,buy, drink,drink!
dave axford, oxford, uk
They say fear is away that governments control people, it's also the way intelligence agencies keep their pay checks and jobs especially during economic hardship.
Are they really going to write, everything's great, we don't really need as much staff as we have and the futures gonna be fine..
R Wilson, Salisbury, UK
This will please the UK's many devoted Guardian readers, will it not?
knocke, Rouen, France
I'm so worried for the future! How much more of my wages do you want to tax so we can ensure that we fight in the name of Freedom?
Howard, Manchester,
Brought to you by the same people who missed the end of the cold war. Trying to predict 20 years in the future is futile. The US could dominate clean energy technology like we have Internet/Software and the sun won't be setting on us anytime soon. Or we could end up owned by Saudi Arabia. Who knows.
Brian, Omaha, USA
The future will be bright if the US just gets the hint and lets others do for themselves. USA out of Nato. USA out of Europe and Middle East. I hope we have the will to finally close those overseas bases and concentrate on our country.
Pete, Chicago, USA
What we have to fear is fear itself guys
don worry be happy live life to the full and you will die a happy man or woman
Luke frendo, Mosta, Malta
Yeah, keep fighting for gay rights and you will be ruler of the world...sheesh, marry and start multiplying if you want to control the world
Vindastra, Starkville,
Move along folks, there's nothing to see here.
Eric, Owatonna, Minnesota, United States
There are many visions and prophecies in the Christian churches of Australia about an asian invader on OZ soil. They all speak about the sins of the Australian people... and theres no USA coming to Australias aid in any of them.
What Will Become of Australia by Jack Burrell is a good vision.
G Gibson, Sydney, Australia
Hopefully after the election of Obama we might see the USA regaining foreign respect again. It would be nice to see some political solution to the situation in Afganistan, because military might will not win here; and positive evidence that Israel is genuine in actively seeking peace.
William Foster, Andover, England UK
The general message in this is "we haven't got a clue".. which, from the US Intelligence community is utterly believable.
It paints a rather Hobbesian form of the future, which has always been a fantasy image. Greater interdependency will save us. People are fundamentally positive.
Keith, Moscow, Russia
How do you foreign individuals feel about America as a whole and us losing a lot of significance? I'm just curious... don't take it the wrong way, I'm in college and just interested.
Mark, Bradfor, USA
A report designed to prepare the people for the worse - prepared by an agency of the dying for the already dead. Question is whether they will "wane" quietly or go with a BANG. I suspect the latter judging from what the US can even do to its own. What an economic legacy is being left to Obama!
James, Leicester,
The fact they refer to global warming shows it's a bit of a joke. If they had bothered to check the data as opposed to Obama's agenda they would know that we have now entered a period of global cooling - for the next 20 years.
Paul, Saigon,
Rob V , we STILL have the SAME infrastructure problems .
Life goes on !
Kenny C, norwich, UK
I don't think this report is far off the mark. Either way, the outlook for freedom is bleak. If the U.S. loses influence and power, who will fight for freedom?? The U.S. is the beacon of light for all those countries and peoples who are desperate for liberty.
leah, AL, USA
The worlds final great army is an asian confederacy army and you can read about it in Revelation 9:16 and 16:12.
The USA would be extremely wise to prepare for a challenge by China and by Russia, both hand in hand , working as a Gang of 2 against her. A.C.Valdez's 1929 vision is a classic warning.
G Gibson, Sydney, Australia
Abraham Lincoln said:
"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Is this threat removed????
Fraz, Lahore, Pakistan
Yes, the U.S. and other countries as well are entering some very scary times. There are many uncertainties. There is an old saying, "when things get tough the tough get going". Don't count the Americans out just yet. We are all needing to adjust to the global economy.
Harold Anderson, Lone Tree, Colorado, USA
Don't you get tired of all the whingers? Especially the paid whingers. Compare your own life to that of 'Baby P'. And after that, don't ever complain again.
Paul Francis, Brisbane, Australia
Was this written by an economist or a weather forecaster?
John, Vancouver, Canada
This report is a valuable and informative addition to understanding the evolving international environment. The research, premises and potential outcomes and how these affect America and the rest of the world are a must read to develop an array of informed policy options.
Andrew Nellestyn, Oakville, Canada
Americans have had something to prove for the last 500 years and their "Dream" has been supported by brutal conquest and the blind luck of being 1000 miles removed from 2 world wars. Since this isn't the last chapter of history, what are we going to do about it?
Christian, Denver,
That's right. Keep everybody scared.
Stewart, Beijing: the picture of the alien ship over the White House from Independence Day would have been my personal selection!
Kevin, Salisbury, UK
There will never be a nuclear war !!
The government can't tax you if you are dead ;)
Phil McCrackin, Ashford, uk
Don't forget these guys did not predict the end of the Soviet Union. At least, if they did, they kept it to themselves. Interesting to see there's global warming claptrap in this report which could be subtitled 'give us more money now!'
Richard, Chicago, USA
The doomsday scenario is alive and well and now a brainchild of the National Intelligence Council. Were these people also complicit in devising the report on WMD in Iraq? With its skills, resources and entrepreneurial capacity, the US will continue to be a dominant power for a long time.
Bill Thomas, Toronto, Canada
Where is the bad news?
Nobody in their right mind can expect or would want this mad world just to keep just going the way it has for the past 75 years?
(the auto industry ceo would)
Mankind , apparently, needs catastrophic wars to come to its senses.
robert, vancouver, bc
Just like when the sun finally set on the British Empire, America as a global force is (thankfully) in its final chapter.
Hopefully the dichotomous West v. East mentality over which US intelligence obsesses will become a bit less prominent as America's economic and military power wane.
Eric Penner, California, USA
Tom, Lebanon, USA,
Then we'd have a refugee crisis at our ports and borders which will make our current illegal immigration problem look like a movie ticket line. I hope we'd be ready for that but I'm skeptical.
T. J. Cassidy, Arlington, Virginia, U.S.A.
Keep calm and carry on.
Chris, Seattle, USA
So in 2025 the U.S. will still be the single most powerful actor, economy and military, with the top currency, but the "sun is setting?" I'd place a bet in a New York minute that in 4 years this report will be far more positive for the U.S. I never cease to be amazed at the nature of these reports
MM, USA,
Or the alternate title:
"America on the verge of certain decline for 63rd straight year"
OKM, Hays, USA
Don't get too wrapped up in the ability of our angry bureaucrats to whip up doomsday scenarios to keep the sheep in the pen. They don't have any idea what's going to happen next week, much less in 2010. What's surprising is that The Times would give this "news" top billing.
Thomas, Austin, TX, USA
possibly the result of 15 years of American Superpower Dominance with no controlling factors?
adam, edinburgh,
Thanks Tim, I'll go stick my head in the oven now.
Phil, Austin, USA
Terrific news .. I can hardly wait .. let some other country pick up the slack, and come to the rescue. It is about time -- we will be a lot better off if we Americans stop carrying sticks. Olive branches are much better.
Marlene, Alexandria, VA, USA
It sounds as if the 'intelligence' team have just watched Mel Gibson's, 'Mad Max' and written a report on it.
Cav J, Qinhunagdao, CN
According to similar American reports towards the end of the 1980's Japan was going to become the World's dominant economy, instead it suffered its worst recession since the end of WW2. India an economic power in 17 years? No chance its currently nowhere near Italy let alone the US, Japan or Germany
Ruairi Maxwell, London, UK
I don't love America because we have "power" I love America because its my home! Let the United States lose some of its dominance, then we wont have to get involved in so many issues and those who we (the population, not politicians) think are our friends can deal with problems on their own.
Tom, Lebanon, USA
Time for the U.S. to retrench, fix its own house, and withdraw troops from everywhere. UN Security Council, IMF, WB should have a single European voice, EU, not UK, France, etc. China India, Brazil, etc. should replace puny European states.
Dale S, San Diego,
"Is this the same U.S. intelligence community who in their April 1989 report asserted that, 'for the foreseeable future, the USSR will remain the Wests principal adversary'?"
Ben, the name and ideology might have changed, but the adversary and threat still exists.
Rob, Sydney, Australia
re: "The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future."
Any one who passed International Economics 101 can tell you that there has been no net 'transfer of wealth from West to East'.
Joseph Lindsay, Dallas, United States
This is the same intelligence agency which launched a war against IRAQ looking for WMD's, ignored credible scientific evidence to the contrary. Personally, I believe we have nothing to worry about.
Arno, Logan City, Australia
Well, of course this is happening, its been planned for a very long time and if you think central bankers can't bring a wealthy nation to its knees while felony stealing its trillions in wealth, then your wrong. Brits should watch out as well, same players as we have here.... your turn.
Pepper, Four Corners Area, Colorado, United States.
we will be fine although it would probably be a good idea for the commonwealth to strengthen our ties again.for example if individually we wont pay for a space programme, maybe our universities could come together to fund one. we shud surely have closer ties with say oz than we do with say germany
will, grimsby, uk
Well no suprise here, Lovelock stated in 2006 that we have grown in number to the point where our presence is perceptibly disabling the planet like a disease. Before that 1971 Boulding came up with the three dismal theorems. As for America, Mumia Abu-Jamal said todays empire is tomorrows ashes.
steven, middlesbrough, uk
After the invasion of Iraq for weapons of mass destruction I would rather put my faith in "Mystic Meg" than trust anything the mistitled US "intelligence community" has to say.
charlie thomson, Singapore, Singapore
Isn't this what the world wants - the U.S. to stay out of things?
Actually I agree with Kit from Leeds, same old drama queen doomsday prophesies we have been hearing for decades.
Rob, Alexandria, USA
'The analysts also give warning that the kind of organised crime plaguing Russia could eventually take over the government of an Eastern or Central European country . . .'
It's already happened in Britain, Chuck.
Mike, Macau,
Oh, WOW! And this is supposed to divert our focus from DOW 7500?
Divergent values, punt where you believe, but it is all interconnected.
jeannie, perugia,
The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
Chicken Little
Pittsburgh, PA -- USSA ( United Socialist States of America )
Norbert , Pittsburgh, USA
Population is the key. The less people there are in the world, the lower the strain on the worlds resources. Places like India, expected to have a population of 1.6 billion by 2050 will be struggling the most. As long as Britain controls its immigration properly I am sure it will remain prosperous.
David Lea-Smith, Edinburgh, U.K.
Environmental catastrophe is one of the two major concerns. We all must start thinking and acting about this issue. All political systems must change to accommodated the environmental needs of the planet earth. The constitutions of all countries must have an environmantal statement.
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia
It will probably happen sooner since Obama has been elected. I hope to see us pull our troops out of Europe and Asia so that we can conserve our resources like others who have been hiding behind our protective shield. Maybe then, we Americans can pay our bills too with the extra trillions on hand!
Henry, Warrenton, Missouri
If the paranoia behind the report is true, then what can be done? The West cannot continually make enemies in order to force their values on them. Better to come clean, apologise and come to some agreement. It was better when the US was a wellwisher of goodwill and led by example.
Bilal Patel, London, UK,
"body of analysts from across the US intelligence community."
Analysts have been so spot on in the past. Listen to the people in the field...if they can be found. The NIC has an interesting gallery of people with extensive bureaucratic titles. This article only proves they read newspapers
r.burns, St Pete, USA
The shifting of US as a ravenous consumer at the expense of the rest of the world is good - however will US allow itself to be part of the 2nd league. The presumption is always that it will be a rogue state that will use a nuclear weapon, the only prediction that is likely is it will be the US of A
Imran khan, Maple Ridge, BC, Canada
As long as UK PLC tries to behave like a major world player, then we, the citizens will continue to get poorer as our assets are wasted on foreign adventures by our posturing politicians.
The outlook is not good for America or Great Britain.
David Nammory, Liverpool,
Organized crime taking over governments in Russia,and central Europe.! this is petty imaginable..
Akyol, Ankara,
This decline has been brought on by GWB and his idiotic war in Iraq. It will never be paid off.
And the Yanks brought this upon themselves by voting him in.
Previously the US could have stopped Iran getting the bomb but now its hopeless. Israel will probably do it instead.
vic k, sheefield , uk
People always belive these kinds of forecasts. I remember that Japan was supposed to take America's Top Dog slot back in the 1980s. It didn't happen.
America may or may not decline from its superpower position--both are possibilities, we simply don't know.
Davidicus, Portland, Oregon, USA
The real joke is that they are fomenting about the "possibility" of nuclear weapons use in the next decade or 2.
I'd bet my savings account that you see nuclear weapons used in less than 1 year - probably before March 2009.
Either Iran will use them on Israel or vice versa.
wayne, milwaukee , usa
Yet another report to keep the people living in a state of fear! Allowing governments and our masters to mantain control and remove our rights further.
This (Government) report facilitates the ongoing agenda.
Do they really care for the planet or us?
Alex, Manchester,
More Weapons of Mass Destruction. Why should we believe them this time?
Bill Peter, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
I'm surprised that they hadn't figured all of this out a long time ago.
E J Murray, Kerry, Ireland
America will disapear steap by steap, Bush you have to find Osama, you forget about it? :)))
Rolando Leturia, mercedes, Argentina
Glad to see they're busy inventing the next 'big fear' to keep us all tucked up.
The old ones, like terrorism and climate change are getting a bit threadbare.
Just carry on ignoring them folks, the screaming is loudest before the dawn, when they will all get kicked into a cocked hat.
Simon, Weymouth,
Life would be dull if we didn't have something to spice it up!
As the Chinese said, 'May your enemies live in interesting times'.
With America in decline things will get very interesting for us Brits, some of us should be more appreciative of our benevolent big brother!
Richard White, Birmingham, West Mids
The US has more oil in shale than the Gulf has. We have more gas than Russia. Global Warming is caused by the Sun which is going into an 11 year down cycle. Global warming is a tax everyone ploy, and irresponsible and non factual reporting continues this lie. Tell the truth.
Desmond Taylor, Houston, USA TEXAS
Yet again, another example of people coming up with inflammatory rubbish to justify their positions. The National Intelligence Council? Come on chaps, back to you day jobs...
AAB, London,
No great surprises there then - except that it is a US body that is predicting it.
Chris, Ashford, Middx, England
This is so negative! There are ups and downs all the time.
Nuclear war? Honestly, we should learn from our mistakes in the past! Where does the hatred & jealousy in humans to our neighbours come from? We are all on the same boat! Quickest way to make life easier, is if we all work together!!!!!!!!
Nic, Glasgow,
Amigos, so if the economic and military power of the USA wanes globally, will the same be be the case with the UK? WE don't have the financial muscle to fund wars, but we try. How long will it go on. Look at our national finances. This will be our legacy to our children.
Food for thought.
R
Ricardo, Inverness, UK
They just trying to scare us
Martin, mumbai, India
In 2025 China will search for weapons of mass destruction in territory of the USA. Why not ?
Dmitry, St-Petersburg, Russia
So with the benefit of hindsight, how does this vary from the period 1908 to now? Yet 20thC brought great advances with the new horrors, as did every other. The difference, if any, will be in how we manage the crises - that's what will tell us if we progress or regress.
KR, Stockport,
The report's declined to mention the coming advent of nano-technology, where nations can not only produce their own resources (and end trade as we know it) but very powerful weapons. America is the biggest investor in this technology and once its cracked, like Arnie...the USA will be back.
Damien, New York, USA
"The next two decades will see a world living with the daily threat of nuclear war, environmental catastrophe and the decline of America "
Yeah, and at millenium bug was supposed to cause chaos amog computers..
Sam Kennedy, Peterborough, ENgland
More doom and gloom reporting, thanks Tim in Washington for cheering me up "Not"
Neil Worthington, Poynton, Cheshire
As a 32 year old man who has children of his own this isn't doing a great job of giving me hope for their future let alone my own. Global warming, the new arms race, terrorism and the impending collapse of capitalism as we know it are certain reality, not ifs buts and maybes. Action's required now.
Chris H, Woking, UK
America will grow stronger in the future .
Through grass root local community
back to basic efforts .
Do not count the people
of the USA out !
I lived in East Anglia , England , UK
from 1980 - the Summer of 1983 .
At that time the English had
infrastructure problems .
Life goes on !
Robert Vaughn , Senior, Arcata, California , USA
Oxymoron : US Intelligence
Chandra, Penang, Malaysia
the report that secures jobs for the CIA / security & counter intelligence forces over the next 4 years...
John Fox, London, UK
The picture of the tidal wave hitting Manhattan is a good indication of the seriousness of this article.
Stewart, Beijing,
Is this the same U.S. intelligence community who in their April 1989 report asserted that, for the foreseeable future, the USSR will remain
the Wests principal adversary?
Ben, London, UK
You don't need National Intelligence Council to realise that America is on the decline. Throughout history, powers have risen, made their conquests and then faded away. The United States is not any different. Hubris got better of them and their sanctimonious, self centered approach to global issues.
A. Khan, London, UK
If US Intelligence agencies were unable to fathom the significance of a bunch of low-lifes desperate to learn how to fly but with no interest in taking off or landing an aircraft why pray tell are we supposed to worry about this latest effort at concocting alarmist dodgy predictions?
John Dorman, Melbourne,
As long as California gets gay marriage, we'll all be okay.
John McD, San Francisco, ca, USA
Ha ha!! That article is about as negative as the equity on my house. We need a bit of positivity people. Everyone is so negative at the moment, its brining everyone else down!! Come on, stiff upper lip, always look on the bright side of life and all that.
James, Sydney ,
The future is bright. The future is nuclear holocaust.
Seriously though, every generation thinks it may be the last. I think people are drama queens. Although it would be nice if our political leaders recognised that saving the Earth is sort of important.
Kit, Leeds,