Graphic: going down? You figure it out

I have often wondered whether the economists’ idea of diminishing returns applies to the enjoyment of cup victories. In other words, if you are a Manchester United supporter, do you enjoy an extra cup victory less because such victories are so common?

It would be a comforting idea, wouldn’t it? It would mean that there was a chance that if you were, say, an Ipswich Town fan, your enjoyment of cup victories averaged over your life might approximate to that of a Manchester United fan because success would be less frequent but more intense. I wish I could think of a way of measuring it.

But while you wait patiently for the Fink Tank to work out how to do that, allow me to entertain you with some statistics on those who — how shall I put it tactfully — enjoy only a small percentage chance of defeating Barcelona in a Champions League final. Dr Henry Stott, Dr Ian Graham and Dr Mark Latham have been looking at the promotion and relegation battles in the Coca-Cola Championship, League One and League Two.

Wolverhampton Wanderers have secured promotion to the Barclays Premier League, but what about the others? There is a 91 per cent chance that Birmingham City will win automatic promotion and a 5 per cent chance that it will be Sheffield United. Reading have a 4 per cent chance — a hugely disappointing performance, given their underlying strength. Sheffield United and Reading will secure play-offs places if not promoted automatically and there is only a 2 per cent chance that Cardiff City will fail to join them.

There is a 90 per cent chance that Burnley will be in the play-offs. Swansea City and Preston North End have a 7 and 5 per cent chance of reaching the play-offs respectively.

At the other end of the table, there was a 94 per cent chance of Southampton being relegated before the ten-points penalty was announced. Now there is a 79 per cent chance that Southampton and Charlton Athletic will be joined in League One by Norwich City. Barnsley (17 per cent), Nottingham Forest (3 per cent) and Plymouth Argyle (1 per cent) share the remaining probability.

Going in the other direction, Leicester City are up as champions, with Peterborough United (79 per cent) and Milton Keynes Dons (21 per cent) vying for the other automatic spot in League One. Millwall have a greater than 99 per cent chance of being in the play-offs and Leeds United a greater than 97 per cent shot. The final play-offs place is being contested by Scunthorpe United (55 per cent) and Tranmere Rovers (45 per cent).

At the bottom, with Hereford United and Cheltenham Town out of it, the battle to avoid the other two relegation places is messy. It involves Yeovil Town (1 per cent chance of the drop), Hartlepool United (3 per cent), Swindon Town (12 per cent), Brighton & Hove Albion (21 per cent), Northampton Town (37 per cent), Carlisle United (49 per cent) and Crewe Alexandra (76 per cent).

In League Two, points deductions played a big role. But the relegation fight is almost over, Chester City having a 97 per cent chance of joining Luton Town in the Blue Square Premier next season. At the top, Brentford have a more than 99 per cent chance of automatic promotion and Wycombe Wanderers a 93 per cent chance. Exeter City (64 per cent), Bury (40 per cent) and Gillingham (3 per cent) are the other candidates.

Rochdale will probably make the play-offs (98 per cent). Dagenham & Redbridge (59 per cent), Shrewsbury Town (30 per cent) Chesterfield (15 per cent) and Morecambe (3 per cent) are the other candidates.

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